Hearne Scientific Software recently introduced a new advanced Crystal Ball training course specifically tailored for oil and gas professionals. Crystal Ball software is a leading spreadsheet-based software suite for predictive modelling, forecasting, Monte Carlo simulation and optimisation. Applications include financial risk analysis, valuation, reserve estimation, Six Sigma, portfolio allocation, and project management.
The intensive two-day training is structured around a series of case studies in oil and gas applications, including prospect evaluation, reserve estimation and portfolio optimisation.
The first day begins with using a Crystal Ball feature for identifying the drivers in a prospect evaluation model. Once identified, analysts can focus their attention on uncertainties inherent in the most important drivers. Participants are trained in performing Monte Carlo simulations early in the training. Modelling correlations or dependencies between inputs is given emphasis as it may alter the output substantially, a factor often overlooked by analysts.
The first day of the Crystal Ball oil and gas training concludes with a session on estimating reserves for an oil or gas prospect, given the significant uncertainties associated with geology and reservoir properties. Because the planning horizon in the oil and gas industry may span a decade or more, long term trends and fluctuations, especially in prices, become critical.
The second day begins with a demonstration of how to set up and perform time series analysis while accounting for uncertainties and correlations. The capstone exercise involves examining many drilling, farmout and workover opportunities using Crystal Ball’s optimisation engine, principally to formulate an optimal portfolio of investments by maximising the net present value. In addition to mastering the software, participants are reminded to be perceptive of insights from personal experience in order to ensure that their models relate to the real world.
Crystal Ball training can be customised to individual needs and delivered on-site at any office.
Oracle Crystal Ball Software is used in a broad range of industries, including aerospace, financial services, manufacturing, oil and gas, pharmaceutical and utilities. It is used by over 4,000 customers worldwide, including 85% of the Fortune 500. In Australia, Crystal Ball is the definitive Monte Carlo simulation tool in the resources industry.