Market intelligence firm TrendForce reveals that smartphone shipments are expected to reach 322 million in the third quarter of 2014, up 13% on the previous quarter. Overall shipments in 2014 will reach 1.2 billion, up 29.2% on 2013. This growth will be driven primarily by the release of the new iPhone and new smartphone models launched by Chinese vendors.
According to a recent survey conducted by TrendForce subsidiary Avanti, 67% of respondents who were asked about the new iPhone said they were looking forward to the device’s larger screen primarily for better viewing and more qualitative reading experiences, while 38% responded they had a strong interest in purchasing the new device. Approximately 21% of Chinese consumers are currently waiting for the new iPhone to hit the market.
TrendForce smartphone analyst, Avril Wu observes there will be increased demand for the new iPhone in the market but shipments will largely depend on whether the manufacturers can maintain stable yields in production and assembly while avoiding bottlenecks. TrendForce predicts total shipments of up to 75 million for the new 4.7” and 5.5” iPhone models, with the larger model accounting for 20% of total shipments.
Samsung Electronics is entering the market with its new Galaxy Note 4 but will face challenges due to the iPhone’s larger screen. TrendForce believes the iPhone will influence Samsung’s market share from 33% at the beginning of 2014, to 28% in the third quarter, which also means Samsung may not be able to reach its goal of 350 million in handset shipments during 2014.
Having seen better-than-expected shipments during the first half of 2014, particularly in the South Korea market, LG Electronics hopes to push its market share up to 6.2% in the third quarter with the release of its G3 Stylus in September. HTC on the other hand will see major declines, with shipments reaching less than 20 million in 2014, even less than half of China-based Xiaomi.
China vendors including Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo, Coolpad and ZTE have registered strong growth and are expected to see over 30 million in shipments during 2014. Lenovo in conjunction with its merged company Motorola will see shipments reach 90 million to become China’s largest vendor while Huawei will see shipments of over 65 million to hold the second spot. Xiaomi and Coolpad follow with nearly 60 million smartphones.
The China market is very optimistic about the release of the new iPhone equipped with 4G, which means that 4G services will be pushed further into the market through the release and vendors will follow by launching more 4G units once the technology has matured in China. The penetration rate of 4G in China is expected to rise from 24.6% to 67%.